Artificial Intelligence Driven Early Warning Systems in the Himalayan Region: Strategic Implications for China, Pakistan, and Regional Stability in South Asia

Abstract

The Himalayan region, also known as the "Third Pole," is a geopolitically and ecologically fragile area under growing threat from climate-related disasters, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), landslides, and earthquakes. All these risks are compounded by the influence of swift glacier melt, unchecked development, and tectonic activity in the region. Since millions of people rely on Himalayan ecosystems for livelihoods and freshwater, there is a critical need for efficient disaster risk reduction strategies. Artificial Intelligence (AI) powered Early Warning Systems (EWS) have been developed as revolutionary means of real-time monitoring and predictive modeling, providing higher forecasting accuracy and response speed than conventional approaches. This study examines the application of AI-driven EWS in the Himalayan region and its strategic implications for China and Pakistan. Both nations, which share parts of the Himalayan belt and have strategic and military interests in the region, have pursued different trajectories in terms of adopting AI. China has integrated AI into its civilian-military infrastructure in Tibet and Xinjiang, whereas Pakistan has begun AI-driven projects in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir through international collaborations. Although these systems hold the potential for enhanced disaster resilience, they also embody challenging geopolitical risks based on their dual-use nature and absence of regional governance frameworks. The effect of AI deployment among indigenous communities is also under researched, particularly about land rights, epistemic marginalization, surveillance, and ecological disturbance. Using thematic analysis, this paper discusses AI's contribution to contemporary EWS, its use in Himalayan geohazards, national responses by China and Pakistan, its socio-cultural effects on local populations, and the wider strategic and security consequences. This paper advocates for inclusive and cooperative AI governance models that prioritize indigenous participation, regional confidence-building measures, and normative frameworks for dual-use technologies. Bridging the divide between environmental technology and security studies, the research calls for a rethinking of AI’s role in conflict-prone ecological zones and highlights the urgency of establishing AI-specific arms control and disaster cooperation mechanisms in South Asia.