From Regional Conflict to Global Crisis: The Economic Fallout of the Russia-Ukraine War (2022-2025)

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict ramped up in mid-February 2022, and the resulting shocks are far-reaching and multidimensional to world economics through 2025. The paper reviews the uncertainty that is caused by the war in the energy markets, food security, inflation, and financial stability globally. Using a qualitative analysis method, the paper integrates reports given by international financial security, trade statistics, and academic works to track the economic knock-on effects. Among the major discoveries is the fact that the conflict has disrupted the international energy markets through the limitation of the export volumes of Russian oil and gas, causing energy price volatility and energy insecurity in the European continent,, to mention a few. Also, the fact that Ukrainian grain exports have been blocked contributed to the food crisis, and it affected the developing countries disproportionately, which was aggravating the global risks of hunger. The monetary policies of global central banks were forced to raise inflationary pressures due to the increase in commodity prices and problems in supply chains, and the financial markets are subjected to an increased level of volatility and investor uncertainty. The article is conclusive, namely that the sustained conflict has not just redefined patterns in trade as well as energy geopolitics but also demonstrated the weakness of global interdependence. It brings to the fore the necessity to have diversified energy policies, resilience in the food supply chain, and multilateral diplomatic efforts to counter the instability in the economy. The paper has made its contribution in advancing the conflict economics literature by means of an entire evaluation of how a regional conflict would be able to create a global economic turbulence that is far-reaching, highlighting the connection between geopolitics and economic security in the global international order today.