Climate Change, Institutional Fragmentation, and Transboundary Water Governance in Germany

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly reshaping the governance of transboundary water systems by intensifying hydrological variability, amplifying ecological stress, and challenging established institutional arrangements. In Germany, major shared river basins such as the Rhine, Danube, Elbe, and Oder are experiencing altered flow regimes, rising water temperatures, and more frequent extremes, placing pressure on long-standing cooperative frameworks. This article examines how climate change interacts with legal, institutional, and political structures to influence cooperation and conflict in German transboundary water governance. Drawing on a qualitative synthesis of academic literature, EU policy frameworks, and basin-level case studies, the analysis reveals that while Germany benefits from robust legal foundations and institutionalized cooperation, governance effectiveness is constrained by federal fragmentation, uneven adaptive capacity, and limited integration of climate risks into transboundary planning. The article argues that future cooperation will depend on strengthening adaptive, polycentric, and climate-responsive governance mechanisms capable of managing uncertainty and cross-border interdependencies.