Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations: Border Security Challenges and the Impact of Cross-Border Militancy (2021–2026)

Abstract

Security in the border areas remains one of the most significant areas of concern between Pakistan and Afghanistan owing to the continued cross-border militancy, illegal migration, inadequate institutional coordination and evolving political relations. Although much has been invested in the border area, there is a lack of empirical evidence showing the interplay of institutional, political, and security components and their impact on border security effectiveness. By analysing the impacts of cross-border militant infiltration, border administration and surveillance capability, bilateral security cooperation, and refugee and illegal cross-border movement, this paper explores the factors that influence border security efficacy. The study also evaluates the mediation role of effective coordination of counterterrorism efforts and the buffering role of political trust between Afghanistan and Pakistan. A quantitative cross-sectional research methodology was used and the primary data was collected from 600 respondents who were selected from 800 questionnaires distributed in different localities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) in Pakistan. Respondents included academics, experts from the private sector with experience in border security issues, government and security officials. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was used to analyse the suggested conceptual framework in order to look at direct, moderating, and mediating interactions between the study variables. The findings reveal that the bilateral security cooperation, border management, and surveillance capacities have significant positive impacts on the effectiveness of border security, whereas Cross-Border militant infiltration and the movement of refugees across the border and illegal movement across the border have significant negative impacts. The acceptable match of the suggested theoretical framework was supported by the structural model. Moreover, the moderation analysis revealed that political trust between the two countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan significantly reduced the negative effect of militant infiltration and strengthened the positive relationship between border management and border security. The mediation study also demonstrated that the effectiveness of counterterrorism coordination significantly mediated the impacts of bilateral security cooperation and refugee/illegal border crossing movement on border security effectiveness via substantial bootstrapped indirect effects. This work introduces a comprehensive empirical model that integrates the institutional theory with regional security complex theory in an exhaustive manner to arrive at the understanding of the efficacy of the border security between Pakistan and Afghanistan. By highlighting the significance of bolstering surveillance infrastructure, institutional cooperation, political trust, and coordinated counterterrorism strategies to improve border governance, regional stability, and national security, the findings offer evidence-based implications for policymakers and security institutions.